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| | | | A-1 | | | |
| | | | B-1 | | | |
| | | | C-1 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions, except per share amounts and percentages)(1)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| ||||||||||||
Revenue
|
| | | $ | 1,390.0 | | | | | $ | 1,215.0 | | | | | $ | 1,315.0 | | | | | $ | 1,415.0 | | |
% Growth
|
| |
56.8%
|
| |
(12.6)%
|
| |
8.2%
|
| |
7.6%
|
| ||||||||||||
Gross Profit
|
| | | $ | 449.9 | | | | | $ | 411.2 | | | | | $ | 445.6 | | | | | $ | 481.7 | | |
% of Revenue
|
| |
32.4%
|
| |
33.8%
|
| |
33.9%
|
| |
34.0%
|
| ||||||||||||
Selling, general and administrative expense
|
| | | $ | 340.0 | | | | | $ | 348.7 | | | | | $ | 376.1 | | | | | $ | 402.6 | | |
% of Revenue
|
| |
24.5%
|
| |
28.7%
|
| |
28.6%
|
| |
28.5%
|
| ||||||||||||
EBIT
|
| | | $ | 109.9 | | | | | $ | 62.5 | | | | | $ | 69.6 | | | | | $ | 79.1 | | |
% of Revenue
|
| |
7.9%
|
| |
5.1%
|
| |
5.3%
|
| |
5.6%
|
| ||||||||||||
Depreciation and Amortization
|
| | | $ | 22.2 | | | | | $ | 23.2 | | | | | $ | 26.1 | | | | | $ | 27.9 | | |
EBITDA
|
| | | $ | 132.1 | | | | | $ | 85.7 | | | | | $ | 95.7 | | | | | $ | 107.0 | | |
% of Revenue
|
| |
9.5%
|
| |
7.0%
|
| |
7.3%
|
| |
7.6%
|
| ||||||||||||
Pre-opening Expenses
|
| | | $ | 1.8 | | | | | $ | 3.0 | | | | | $ | 3.3 | | | | | $ | 3.3 | | |
Stock-based Compensation Expense
|
| | | $ | 3.5 | | | | | $ | 3.3 | | | | | $ | 3.3 | | | | | $ | 3.3 | | |
Management Adjustments
|
| | | $ | 8.1 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Adjusted EBITDA
|
| | | $ | 144.7 | | | | | $ | 92.0 | | | | | $ | 102.3 | | | | | $ | 113.6 | | |
% of Revenue
|
| |
10.4%
|
| |
7.6%
|
| |
7.8%
|
| |
8.0%
|
| ||||||||||||
Income Tax Provision
|
| | | $ | 27.7 | | | | | $ | 16.5 | | | | | $ | 18.3 | | | | | $ | 21.0 | | |
Interest Expense
|
| | | $ | 3.6 | | | | | $ | 1.5 | | | | | $ | 1.8 | | | | | $ | 1.2 | | |
Other Expense / (Income)
|
| | | $ | (4.0) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 82.5 | | | | | $ | 44.5 | | | | | $ | 49.5 | | | | | $ | 56.9 | | |
EPS
|
| | | $ | 1.90 | | | | | $ | 1.01 | | | | | $ | 1.11 | | | | | $ | 1.26 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions, except per share amounts and percentages)(1)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| ||||||||||||
Adjusted Net Income
|
| | | $ | 84.5 | | | | | $ | 44.5 | | | | | $ | 49.5 | | | | | $ | 56.9 | | |
Adjusted EPS
|
| | | $ | 1.90 | | | | | $ | 1.00 | | | | | $ | 1.10 | | | | | $ | 1.25 | | |
Weighted Average Shares Outstanding — Basic
|
| | | | 43.5 | | | | | | 44.0 | | | | | | 44.5 | | | | | | 45.0 | | |
Adjusted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding(2)
|
| | | | 44.3 | | | | | | 44.5 | | | | | | 45.0 | | | | | | 45.5 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions, except per share
amounts and percentages)(1) |
| |
Normalized
LTM ended 10/31/2020(2) |
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| |
2024P
|
| |
2025P
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
Revenue
|
| | | $ | 1,054.2 | | | | | $ | 1,390.0 | | | | | $ | 1,215.0 | | | | | $ | 1,315.0 | | | | | $ | 1,415.0 | | | | | $ | 1,530.0 | | | | | $ | 1,655.0 | | |
% Growth
|
| |
21.0%
|
| |
56.8%
|
| |
(12.6)%
|
| |
8.2%
|
| |
7.6%
|
| |
8.1%
|
| |
8.2%
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
Gross Profit
|
| | | | | | | | | $ | 449.9 | | | | | $ | 411.2 | | | | | $ | 445.6 | | | | | $ | 481.7 | | | | | $ | 522.3 | | | | | $ | 566.7 | | |
% of Revenue
|
| | | | | | | |
32.4%
|
| |
33.8%
|
| |
33.9%
|
| |
34.0%
|
| |
34.1%
|
| |
34.2%
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Selling, general and administrative
expense |
| | | | | | | | | $ | 340.0 | | | | | $ | 348.7 | | | | | $ | 376.1 | | | | | $ | 402.6 | | | | | $ | 434.2 | | | | | $ | 468.4 | | |
% of Revenue
|
| | | | | | | |
24.5%
|
| |
28.7%
|
| |
28.6%
|
| |
28.5%
|
| |
28.4%
|
| |
28.3%
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
EBIT
|
| | | | | | | | | $ | 109.9 | | | | | $ | 62.5 | | | | | $ | 69.6 | | | | | $ | 79.1 | | | | | $ | 88.1 | | | | | $ | 98.3 | | |
% of Revenue
|
| | | | | | | |
7.9%
|
| |
5.1%
|
| |
5.3%
|
| |
5.6%
|
| |
5.8%
|
| |
5.9%
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Depreciation and Amortization | | | | | | | | | | $ | 22.2 | | | | | $ | 23.2 | | | | | $ | 26.1 | | | | | $ | 27.9 | | | | | $ | 29.7 | | | | | $ | 31.5 | | |
EBITDA
|
| | | | | | | | | $ | 132.1 | | | | | $ | 85.7 | | | | | $ | 95.7 | | | | | $ | 107.0 | | | | | $ | 117.8 | | | | | $ | 129.8 | | |
% of Revenue
|
| | | | | | | |
9.5%
|
| |
7.0%
|
| |
7.3%
|
| |
7.6%
|
| |
7.7%
|
| |
7.8%
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Management
Adjustments |
| | | | | | | | | $ | 7.3 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Adjusted EBITDA
|
| | | $ | 74.3 | | | | | $ | 139.4 | | | | | $ | 85.7 | | | | | $ | 95.7 | | | | | $ | 107.0 | | | | | $ | 117.8 | | | | | $ | 129.8 | | |
% of Revenue
|
| |
7.0%
|
| |
10.0%
|
| |
7.0%
|
| |
7.3%
|
| |
7.6%
|
| |
7.7%
|
| |
7.8%
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
Income Tax Provision
|
| | | | | | | | | $ | 27.6 | | | | | $ | 16.3 | | | | | $ | 18.1 | | | | | $ | 20.8 | | | | | $ | 23.4 | | | | | $ | 26.2 | | |
Interest Expense
|
| | | | | | | | | $ | 3.6 | | | | | $ | 1.5 | | | | | $ | 1.8 | | | | | $ | 1.2 | | | | | $ | 0.4 | | | | | | — | | |
Other Expense /
(Income) |
| | | | | | | | | $ | (4.0) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Net Income
|
| | | | | | | | | $ | 82.6 | | | | | $ | 44.7 | | | | | $ | 49.7 | | | | | $ | 57.1 | | | | | $ | 64.3 | | | | | $ | 72.1 | | |
EPS
|
| | | | | | | | | $ | 1.90 | | | | | $ | 1.01 | | | | | $ | 1.12 | | | | | $ | 1.27 | | | | | $ | 1.41 | | | | | $ | 1.57 | | |
Adjusted Net Income
|
| | | $ | 38.7 | | | | | $ | 84.5 | | | | | $ | 44.7 | | | | | $ | 49.7 | | | | | $ | 57.1 | | | | | $ | 64.3 | | | | | $ | 72.1 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions, except per share
amounts and percentages)(1) |
| |
Normalized
LTM ended 10/31/2020(2) |
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| |
2024P
|
| |
2025P
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Adjusted EPS
|
| | | | | | $ | 1.90 | | | | | $ | 1.00 | | | | | $ | 1.10 | | | | | $ | 1.26 | | | | | $ | 1.40 | | | | | $ | 1.55 | | |
Weighted Average Shares
Outstanding – Basic |
| | | | | | | 43.5 | | | | | | 44.0 | | | | | | 44.5 | | | | | | 45.0 | | | | | | 45.5 | | | | | | 46.0 | | |
Adjusted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding(3) | | | | | | | | 44.3 | | | | | | 44.5 | | | | | | 45.0 | | | | | | 45.5 | | | | | | 46.0 | | | | | | 46.5 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions, except percentages)
|
| |
Q4 2020E(1)
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| |
2024P
|
| |
2025P
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
EBIT
|
| | | $ | 26.5 | | | | | $ | 62.5 | | | | | $ | 69.6 | | | | | $ | 79.1 | | | | | $ | 88.1 | | | | | $ | 98.3 | | |
Tax Rate(2)
|
| |
26.7%
|
| |
26.7%
|
| |
26.7%
|
| |
26.7%
|
| |
26.7%
|
| |
26.7%
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Tax-affected EBIT
|
| | | $ | 19.4 | | | | | $ | 45.8 | | | | | $ | 51.0 | | | | | $ | 58.0 | | | | | $ | 64.6 | | | | | $ | 72.1 | | |
Depreciation and Amortization
|
| | | $ | 5.4 | | | | | $ | 23.2 | | | | | $ | 26.1 | | | | | $ | 27.9 | | | | | $ | 29.7 | | | | | $ | 31.5 | | |
Decrease / (Increase) in Working Capital(3)
|
| | | $ | (11.3) | | | | | $ | (77.5) | | | | | $ | (4.3) | | | | | $ | (2.8) | | | | | $ | (4.8) | | | | | $ | (5.4) | | |
Capital Expenditures(4)
|
| | | $ | (0.6) | | | | | $ | (46.8) | | | | | $ | (44.4) | | | | | $ | (43.8) | | | | | $ | (47.4) | | | | | $ | (47.9) | | |
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
|
| | | $ | 12.9 | | | | | $ | (55.3) | | | | | $ | 28.4 | | | | | $ | 39.3 | | | | | $ | 42.1 | | | | | $ | 50.2 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions)(1)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| ||||||||||||
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 82.5 | | | | | $ | 44.5 | | | | | $ | 49.5 | | | | | $ | 56.9 | | |
Plus Acquisition Costs(2)
|
| | | | 0.4 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Hazard Pay(3)
|
| | | | 4.6 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Store Closing Write-Off(4)
|
| | | | 1.0 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Legal Accrual(5)
|
| | | | 2.0 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Less Gain on Bargain Purchase(6)
|
| | | | (4.0) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Less Tax Benefit
|
| | | | (2.1) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Adjusted Net Income
|
| | | $ | 84.5 | | | | | $ | 44.5 | | | | | $ | 49.5 | | | | | $ | 56.9 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions)(1)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| ||||||||||||
Weighted Average Shares Outstanding – Basic
|
| | | | 43.5 | | | | | | 44.0 | | | | | | 44.5 | | | | | | 45.0 | | |
Plus Dilutive Effect of Unvested Shares
|
| | | | 0.8 | | | | | | 0.5 | | | | | | 0.5 | | | | | | 0.5 | | |
Adjusted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding
|
| | | | 44.3 | | | | | | 44.5 | | | | | | 45.0 | | | | | | 45.5 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| ||||||||||||
EPS
|
| | | $ | 1.90 | | | | | $ | 1.01 | | | | | $ | 1.11 | | | | | $ | 1.26 | | |
Less Impact of Adjustments to Numerator and Denominator
|
| | | | — | | | | | | (0.01) | | | | | | (0.01) | | | | | | (0.01) | | |
Adjusted EPS
|
| | | $ | 1.90 | | | | | $ | 1.00 | | | | | $ | 1.10 | | | | | $ | 1.25 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| ||||||||||||
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 82.5 | | | | | $ | 44.5 | | | | | $ | 49.5 | | | | | $ | 56.9 | | |
Plus Interest Expense
|
| | | | 3.6 | | | | | | 1.5 | | | | | | 1.8 | | | | | | 1.2 | | |
Plus Income Tax Expense
|
| | | | 27.7 | | | | | | 16.5 | | | | | | 18.3 | | | | | | 21.0 | | |
Less Gain on Bargain Purchase(1)
|
| | | | (4.0) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
EBIT
|
| | | $ | 109.9 | | | | | $ | 62.5 | | | | | $ | 69.6 | | | | | $ | 79.1 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| ||||||||||||
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 82.5 | | | | | $ | 44.5 | | | | | $ | 49.5 | | | | | $ | 56.9 | | |
Plus Interest Expense
|
| | | | 3.6 | | | | | | 1.5 | | | | | | 1.8 | | | | | | 1.2 | | |
Plus Income Tax Expense
|
| | | | 27.7 | | | | | | 16.5 | | | | | | 18.3 | | | | | | 21.0 | | |
Plus Depreciation and Amortization
|
| | | | 22.2 | | | | | | 23.2 | | | | | | 26.1 | | | | | | 27.9 | | |
Less Gain on Bargain Purchase(1)
|
| | | | (4.0) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
EBITDA
|
| | | $ | 132.1 | | | | | $ | 85.7 | | | | | $ | 95.7 | | | | | $ | 107.0 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| ||||||||||||
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 82.5 | | | | | $ | 44.5 | | | | | $ | 49.5 | | | | | $ | 56.9 | | |
Plus Interest Expense
|
| | | | 3.6 | | | | | | 1.5 | | | | | | 1.8 | | | | | | 1.2 | | |
Plus Income Tax Expense
|
| | | | 27.7 | | | | | | 16.5 | | | | | | 18.3 | | | | | | 21.0 | | |
Plus Depreciation and Amortization(1)
|
| | | | 21.4 | | | | | | 23.2 | | | | | | 26.1 | | | | | | 27.9 | | |
Plus Stock-based Compensation Expense(2)
|
| | | | 3.5 | | | | | | 3.3 | | | | | | 3.3 | | | | | | 3.3 | | |
Plus Pre-Opening Expenses(3)
|
| | | | 1.8 | | | | | | 3.0 | | | | | | 3.3 | | | | | | 3.3 | | |
Plus Acquisition Costs(4)
|
| | | | 0.4 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Hazard Pay(5)
|
| | | | 4.6 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Store Closing Write-Off(6)
|
| | | | 1.0 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| ||||||||||||
Plus Legal Accrual(7)
|
| | | | 2.1 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Less Gain on Bargain Purchase(8)
|
| | | | (4.0) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Adjusted EBITDA
|
| | | $ | 144.7 | | | | | $ | 92.0 | | | | | $ | 102.3 | | | | | $ | 113.6 | | |
|
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions)(1)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| |
2024P
|
| |
2025P
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 82.6 | | | | | $ | 44.7 | | | | | $ | 49.7 | | | | | $ | 57.1 | | | | | $ | 64.3 | | | | | $ | 72.1 | | |
Plus Acquisition Costs(2)
|
| | | | 0.4 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Hazard Pay(3)
|
| | | | 4.6 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Store Closing Write-Off(4)
|
| | | | 1.0 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Legal Accrual(5)
|
| | | | 2.0 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Less Gain on Bargain Purchase(6)
|
| | | | (4.0) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Less Tax Benefit
|
| | | | (2.1) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Adjusted Net Income
|
| | | $ | 84.5 | | | | | $ | 44.7 | | | | | $ | 49.7 | | | | | $ | 57.1 | | | | | $ | 64.3 | | | | | $ | 72.1 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions)(1)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| |
2024P
|
| |
2025P
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Weighted Average Shares Outstanding – Basic
|
| | | | 43.5 | | | | | | 44.0 | | | | | | 44.5 | | | | | | 45.0 | | | | | | 45.5 | | | | | | 46.0 | | |
Plus Dilutive Effect of Unvested Shares
|
| | | | 0.8 | | | | | | 0.5 | | | | | | 0.5 | | | | | | 0.5 | | | | | | 0.5 | | | | | | 0.5 | | |
Adjusted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding
|
| | | | 44.3 | | | | | | 44.5 | | | | | | 45.0 | | | | | | 45.5 | | | | | | 46.0 | | | | | | 46.5 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| |
2024P
|
| |
2025P
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
EPS
|
| | | $ | 1.90 | | | | | $ | 1.01 | | | | | $ | 1.12 | | | | | $ | 1.27 | | | | | $ | 1.41 | | | | | $ | 1.57 | | |
Less Impact of Adjustments to Numerator and Denominator
|
| | | | 0.00 | | | | | | (0.01) | | | | | | (0.02) | | | | | | (0.01) | | | | | | (0.01) | | | | | | (0.02) | | |
Adjusted EPS
|
| | | $ | 1.90 | | | | | $ | 1.00 | | | | | $ | 1.10 | | | | | $ | 1.26 | | | | | $ | 1.40 | | | | | $ | 1.55 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| |
2024P
|
| |
2025P
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 82.6 | | | | | $ | 44.7 | | | | | $ | 49.7 | | | | | $ | 57.1 | | | | | $ | 64.3 | | | | | $ | 72.1 | | |
Plus Interest Expense
|
| | | | 3.6 | | | | | | 1.5 | | | | | | 1.8 | | | | | | 1.2 | | | | | | 0.4 | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Income Tax Expense
|
| | | | 27.6 | | | | | | 16.3 | | | | | | 18.1 | | | | | | 20.8 | | | | | | 23.4 | | | | | | 26.2 | | |
Less Gain on Bargain Purchase(1)
|
| | | | (4.0) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
EBIT
|
| | | $ | 109.9 | | | | | $ | 62.5 | | | | | $ | 69.6 | | | | | $ | 79.1 | | | | | $ | 88.1 | | | | | $ | 98.3 | | |
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| |
2024P
|
| |
2025P
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 82.6 | | | | | $ | 44.7 | | | | | $ | 49.7 | | | | | $ | 57.1 | | | | | $ | 64.3 | | | | | $ | 72.1 | | |
Plus Interest Expense
|
| | | | 3.6 | | | | | | 1.5 | | | | | | 1.8 | | | | | | 1.2 | | | | | | 0.4 | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Income Tax Expense
|
| | | | 27.6 | | | | | | 16.3 | | | | | | 18.1 | | | | | | 20.8 | | | | | | 23.4 | | | | | | 26.2 | | |
Plus Depreciation and Amortization
|
| | | | 22.2 | | | | | | 23.2 | | | | | | 26.1 | | | | | | 27.9 | | | | | | 29.7 | | | | | | 31.5 | | |
Less Gain on Bargain Purchase(1)
|
| | | | (4.0) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
EBITDA
|
| | | $ | 132.1 | | | | | $ | 85.7 | | | | | $ | 95.7 | | | | | $ | 107.0 | | | | | $ | 117.8 | | | | | $ | 129.8 | | |
|
| | |
Fiscal Year
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
(in millions)
|
| |
2020E
|
| |
2021P
|
| |
2022P
|
| |
2023P
|
| |
2024P
|
| |
2025P
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Net Income
|
| | | $ | 82.6 | | | | | $ | 44.7 | | | | | $ | 49.7 | | | | | $ | 57.1 | | | | | $ | 64.3 | | | | | $ | 72.1 | | |
Plus Interest Expense
|
| | | | 3.6 | | | | | | 1.5 | | | | | | 1.8 | | | | | | 1.2 | | | | | | 0.4 | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Income Tax Expense
|
| | | | 27.6 | | | | | | 16.3 | | | | | | 18.1 | | | | | | 20.8 | | | | | | 23.4 | | | | | | 26.2 | | |
Plus Depreciation and Amortization(1)
|
| | | | 21.4 | | | | | | 23.2 | | | | | | 26.1 | | | | | | 27.9 | | | | | | 29.7 | | | | | | 31.5 | | |
Plus Acquisition Costs(2)
|
| | | | 0.4 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Hazard Pay(3)
|
| | | | 4.6 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Store Closing Write-Off(4)
|
| | | | 1.0 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Plus Legal Accrual(5)
|
| | | | 2.1 | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Less Gain on Bargain Purchase(6)
|
| | | | (4.0) | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | | | | | — | | |
Adjusted EBITDA
|
| | | $ | 139.4 | | | | | $ | 85.7 | | | | | $ | 95.7 | | | | | $ | 107.0 | | | | | $ | 117.8 | | | | | $ | 129.8 | | |
Adjusted EBITDA
|
| |
Implied Multiple
|
| |||
Actual LTM ended October 31, 2020
|
| | | | 6.0x | | |
Normalized LTM ended October 31, 2020
|
| | | | 10.3x | | |
FY 2021P
|
| | | | 8.9x | | |
Adjusted Diluted EPS
|
| |
Implied Multiple
|
| |||
Actual LTM ended October 31, 2020
|
| | | | 10.8x | | |
Normalized LTM ended October 31, 2020
|
| | | | 20.9x | | |
FY 2021P
|
| | | | 18.1x | | |
Target
|
| |
Buyer
|
| |
EV / LTM
Adjusted EBITDA |
| |
EV / NTM
Adjusted EBITDA |
| ||||||
The Marshall Retail Group, LLC
|
| | WH Smith PLC | | | | | 12.7x | | | | | | N/A | | |
Smart & Final Stores, Inc.
|
| | Apollo Global Management, LLC | | | | | 7.1x | | | | | | 5.8x | | |
InMotion Entertainment Group, LLC
|
| | WH Smith PLC | | | | | 9.9x | | | | | | N/A | | |
City Gear, LLC
|
| | Hibbett Sporting Goods, Inc. | | | | | 7.8x | | | | | | N/A | | |
SUPERVALU INC.
|
| | United Natural Foods, Inc. | | | | | 7.2x | | | | | | 7.4x | | |
West Marine, Inc.
|
| | Monomoy Capital Partners | | | | | 6.4x | | | | | | 5.1x | | |
Staples, Inc.
|
| | Sycamore Partners Management, L.P. | | | | | 5.1x | | | | | | 5.5x | | |
Whole Foods Market, Inc.
|
| | Amazon.com, Inc. | | | | | 10.6x | | | | | | 10.0x | | |
Cabela’s Incorporated
|
| | Bass Pro Group, LLC | | | | | 10.6x | | | | | | 9.1x | | |
The Fresh Market, Inc.
|
| | Apollo Global Management, LLC | | | | | 7.0x | | | | | | 6.2x | | |
Target
|
| |
Buyer
|
| |
EV / LTM
Adjusted EBITDA |
| |
EV / NTM
Adjusted EBITDA |
| ||||||
Roundy’s, Inc.
|
| | The Kroger Co. | | | | | 7.2x | | | | | | 6.5x | | |
Life Time Fitness, Inc.
|
| | Leonard Green & Partners, L.P. / TPG Capital LP / LNK Partners, LLC | | | | | 10.7x | | | | | | 9.1x | | |
The Pantry, Inc.
|
| | Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. | | | | | 7.8x | | | | | | 7.4x | | |
PetSmart, Inc.
|
| | BC Partners, Inc. / La Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec / StepStone Group LP | | | | | 9.1x | | | | | | 8.2x | | |
Family Dollar Stores, Inc.
|
| | Dollar Tree, Inc. | | | | | 11.3x | | | | | | 9.5x | | |
| | |
Implied Transaction
Multiples |
| |
Implied Enterprise Value
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
Low
|
| |
Average
|
| |
Median
|
| |
High
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Adjusted EBITDA | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Normalized LTM ended October 31, 2020
|
| | | | 10.3x | | | | | | 5.1x | | | | | | 8.7x | | | | | | 7.8x | | | | | | 12.7x | | |
NTM
|
| | | | 8.9x | | | | | | 5.1x | | | | | | 7.5x | | | | | | 7.4x | | | | | | 10.0x | | |
| | |
Implied Sportsman’s Warehouse Equity Value / Share
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
Low
|
| |
Average
|
| |
Median
|
| |
High
|
| ||||||||||||
Adjusted EBITDA | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Normalized LTM ended October 31, 2020
|
| | | $ | 9.49 | | | | | $ | 15.44 | | | | | $ | 14.01 | | | | | $ | 22.03 | | |
NTM
|
| | | $ | 10.77 | | | | | $ | 15.30 | | | | | $ | 15.13 | | | | | $ | 20.14 | | |
Reference Equity Value Per Share | | | | $ | 10.13 | | | | | $ | 15.37 | | | | | $ | 14.57 | | | | | $ | 21.08 | | |
| | | |
EV / Adjusted EBITDA
|
| | |
Price / Adjusted EPS
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Company
|
| | |
LTM
|
| | |
2020E
|
| | |
2021P
|
| | |
LTM
|
| | |
2020E
|
| | |
2021P
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc. | | | | | | 4.6x | | | | | | | 4.5x | | | | | | | 5.1x | | | | | | | 9.3x | | | | | | | 7.0x | | | | | | | 7.7x | | |
AutoZone, Inc. | | | | | | 10.8x | | | | | | | 10.8x | | | | | | | 11.1x | | | | | | | 15.1x | | | | | | | 15.3x | | | | | | | 15.9x | | |
Best Buy Co., Inc. | | | | | | 6.9x | | | | | | | 6.5x | | | | | | | 6.8x | | | | | | | 14.3x | | | | | | | 13.1x | | | | | | | 14.0x | | |
Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. | | | | | | 16.8x | | | | | | | 16.8x | | | | | | | 12.8x | | | | | | | 32.8x | | | | | | | 33.8x | | | | | | | 22.5x | | |
Lowe’s Companies, Inc. | | | | | | 12.2x | | | | | | | 11.9x | | | | | | | 11.8x | | | | | | | 19.0x | | | | | | | 18.5x | | | | | | | 18.3x | | |
The Home Depot, Inc. | | | | | | 15.7x | | | | | | | 15.3x | | | | | | | 14.7x | | | | | | | 23.5x | | | | | | | 23.0x | | | | | | | 22.4x | | |
DICK’S Sporting Goods, Inc. | | | | | | 4.9x | | | | | | | 4.1x | | | | | | | 4.6x | | | | | | | 12.1x | | | | | | | 9.4x | | | | | | | 10.9x | | |
Duluth Holdings Inc. | | | | | | 9.7x | | | | | | | 9.8x | | | | | | | 7.9x | | | | | | | 22.9x | | | | | | | 26.8x | | | | | | | 16.1x | | |
Tractor Supply Company | | | | | | 14.3x | | | | | | | 13.7x | | | | | | | 14.1x | | | | | | | 23.0x | | | | | | | 22.2x | | | | | | | 23.4x | | |
The Michaels Companies, Inc. | | | | | | 4.9x | | | | | | | 4.7x | | | | | | | 4.7x | | | | | | | 6.8x | | | | | | | 5.4x | | | | | | | 5.1x | | |
Ulta Beauty, Inc. | | | | | | 21.1x | | | | | | | 26.0x | | | | | | | 13.4x | | | | | | | 51.5x | | | | | | | N/M | | | | | | | 26.3x | | |
The Container Store Group, Inc. | | | | | | 7.2x | | | | | | | 6.3x | | | | | | | 6.7x | | | | | | | 19.4x | | | | | | | 19.5x | | | | | | | 16.8x | | |
| | |
Implied Transaction
Multiples |
| |
Selected Trading Multiples
|
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
Low
|
| |
Average
|
| |
Median
|
| |
High
|
| ||||||||||||||||||
Adjusted EBITDA | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Normalized LTM ended October 31, 2020
|
| | | | 10.3x | | | | | | 4.6x | | | | | | 10.7x | | | | | | 10.3x | | | | | | 21.1x | | |
2021P
|
| | | | 8.9x | | | | | | 4.6x | | | | | | 9.5x | | | | | | 9.5x | | | | | | 14.7x | | |
Adjusted EPS | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Normalized LTM ended October 31, 2020
|
| | | | 20.9x | | | | | | 6.8x | | | | | | 20.8x | | | | | | 19.2x | | | | | | 51.5x | | |
2021P
|
| | | | 18.1x | | | | | | 5.1x | | | | | | 16.6x | | | | | | 16.5x | | | | | | 26.3x | | |
| | |
Implied Sportsman’s Warehouse Equity Value / Share
|
| |||||||||||||||||||||
| | |
Low
|
| |
Average
|
| |
Median
|
| |
High
|
| ||||||||||||
Adjusted EBITDA | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Normalized LTM ended October 31, 2020
|
| | | $ | 8.72 | | | | | $ | 18.81 | | | | | $ | 18.00 | | | | | $ | 35.92 | | |
2021P
|
| | | $ | 9.76 | | | | | $ | 19.11 | | | | | $ | 19.16 | | | | | $ | 29.10 | | |
Adjusted EPS | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Normalized LTM ended October 31, 2020
|
| | | $ | 5.87 | | | | | $ | 17.91 | | | | | $ | 16.52 | | | | | $ | 44.35 | | |
2021P
|
| | | $ | 5.10 | | | | | $ | 16.48 | | | | | $ | 16.33 | | | | | $ | 26.07 | | |
Reference Equity Value Per Share
|
| | | $ | 7.36 | | | | | $ | 18.08 | | | | | $ | 17.50 | | | | | $ | 33.86 | | |
| | |
Sportsman’s
Warehouse Transaction Premium |
| |
Selected Transaction Premiums
|
| |||||||||
|
Low
|
| |
Average
|
| |
Median
|
| |
High
|
| |||||
1-Day Prior
|
| |
44.6%
|
| |
0.6%
|
| |
34.3%
|
| |
25.5%
|
| |
104.2%
|
|
7-Days Prior
|
| |
52.5%
|
| |
2.1%
|
| |
35.7%
|
| |
26.5%
|
| |
108.6%
|
|
30-Days Prior
|
| |
29.7%
|
| |
(12.0)%
|
| |
38.2%
|
| |
34.6%
|
| |
103.0%
|
|
180-Days Prior
|
| |
44.2%
|
| |
(73.5)%
|
| |
48.1%
|
| |
33.5%
|
| |
256.7%
|
|
52-Week High
|
| |
2.8%
|
| |
(91.8)%
|
| |
2.5%
|
| |
4.2%
|
| |
79.0%
|
|
All-Time High
|
| |
2.8%
|
| |
(96.5)%
|
| |
(30.6)%
|
| |
(37.5)%
|
| |
47.4%
|
|
Premium to Share Price
|
| | | |
Current Share Price ($12.45 on 12/18/20)
|
| |
44.6%
|
|
30 Calendar Day Average ($13.15)
|
| |
36.9%
|
|
180 Calendar Day Average ($14.79)
|
| |
21.7%
|
|
52-Week Average ($11.19)
|
| |
60.9%
|
|
52-Week High ($17.51)
|
| |
2.8%
|
|
52-Week Low ($4.30)
|
| |
318.6%
|
|
Name
|
| |
Cash ($)(1)
|
| |
Equity ($)(2)
|
| |
Perquisites/
Benefits ($)(3) |
| |
Total ($)
|
| ||||||||||||
Jon Barker
|
| | | | 1,495,000 | | | | | | 9,126,666 | | | | | | 54,169 | | | | | | 10,675,835 | | |
Robert K. Julian
|
| | | | 537,708 | | | | | | 3,941,118 | | | | | | 38,612 | | | | | | 4,517,438 | | |
Name
|
| |
Continued
Payment of Base Salary ($) |
| |
Pro-Rata
Annual Target Bonus Payment ($) |
| |
Total ($)
|
| |||||||||
Jon Barker
|
| | | | 1,170,000 | | | | | | 325,000 | | | | | | 1,495,000 | | |
Robert K. Julian
|
| | | | 445,000 | | | | | | 92,708 | | | | | | 537,708 | | |
Name
|
| |
RSUs ($)
|
| |
PSUs (at Maximum
Level of Performance) ($) |
| |
Total ($)
|
| |||||||||
Jon Barker
|
| | | | 6,009,462 | | | | | | 3,117,204 | | | | | | 9,126,666 | | |
Robert K. Julian
|
| | | | 2,582,334 | | | | | | 1,358,784 | | | | | | 3,941,118 | | |
Name
|
| |
RSUs ($)
|
| |
PSUs($)
|
| |
Total ($)
|
| |||||||||
Jon Barker
|
| | | | 6,009,462 | | | | | | 2,078,136 | | | | | | 8,087,598 | | |
Robert K. Julian
|
| | | | 2,582,334 | | | | | | 905,850 | | | | | | 3,488,184 | | |
Name of Beneficial Owner
|
| |
Number of
Shares of Common Stock Beneficially Owned |
| |
Percentage of
Shares of Common Stock Beneficially Owned |
| ||||||
5% Stockholders | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
T. Rowe Price(1)
|
| | | | 5,527,037 | | | | | | 12.67% | | |
BlackRock, Inc.(2)
|
| | | | 3,048,042 | | | | | | 6.98% | | |
Magnetar Financial LLC(3)
|
| | | | 3,000,332 | | | | | | 6.87% | | |
Franklin Resources, Inc.(4)
|
| | | | 2,878,016 | | | | | | 6.59% | | |
BBRC Asset Management US, LLC(5)
|
| | | | 2,446,225 | | | | | | 5.60% | | |
Cannell Capital LLC(6)
|
| | | | 2,360,213 | | | | | | 5.41% | | |
Directors and Named Executive Officers | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Jon Barker(7)
|
| | | | 242,062 | | | | | | * | | |
Robert K. Julian(8)
|
| | | | 23,944 | | | | | | * | | |
Joseph P. Schneider(9)
|
| | | | 80,336 | | | | | | * | | |
Martha Bejar(10)
|
| | | | 20,900 | | | | | | * | | |
Christopher Eastland(11)
|
| | | | 2,687 | | | | | | * | | |
Gregory P. Hickey(12)
|
| | | | 52,605 | | | | | | * | | |
Richard McBee(13)
|
| | | | 51,456 | | | | | | * | | |
Philip Williamson(14)
|
| | | | 15,337 | | | | | | * | | |
All Current Directors and Executive Officers as a group (9 persons)
|
| | | | 489,327 | | | | | | 1.12% | | |
| | |
PAGE
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| | | | A-1 | | | |
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| | | | A-14 | | | |
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| | | | A-15 | | | |
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| | | | A-17 | | | |
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| | | | A-18 | | | |
| | | | A-18 | | | |
| | | | A-19 | | | |
| | | | A-21 | | | |
| | | | A-22 | | | |
| | | | A-23 | | | |
| | | | A-24 | | | |
| | | | A-24 | | | |
| | | | A-25 | | | |
| | | | A-26 | | | |
| | | | A-27 | | | |
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| | | | A-27 | | | |
| | | | A-27 | | | |
| | | | A-27 | | | |
| | | | A-28 | | | |
| | | | A-28 | | | |
| | | | A-28 | | | |
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| | | | A-45 | | | |
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| | | | A-49 | | | |
| | | | A-49 | | | |
| | | | A-50 | | | |
| | | | A-50 | | |
Term
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| |
Section
|
|
Adverse Recommendation Change
|
| |
6.03(e)
|
|
Agreement
|
| |
Preamble
|
|
Anti-corruption Laws
|
| |
4.23(a)
|
|
Antitrust Laws
|
| |
8.01(b)
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|
Applicable Date
|
| |
Article 4
|
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ATF
|
| |
4.12(b)
|
|
Breach
|
| |
4.15(i)
|
|
Certificate of Merger
|
| |
2.01(b)
|
|
Certificates
|
| |
2.03(a)
|
|
Chosen Court
|
| |
11.08
|
|
Term
|
| |
Section
|
|
Claim
|
| |
7.03(b)
|
|
Closing
|
| |
2.01(a)
|
|
Closing Date
|
| |
2.01(a)
|
|
Company
|
| |
Preamble
|
|
Company 401(k) Plan
|
| |
7.04(e)
|
|
Company Acquisition Agreement
|
| |
6.03(e)
|
|
Company Board Recommendation
|
| |
4.02(b)
|
|
Company Employee
|
| |
7.04(a)
|
|
Company Equity Awards
|
| |
4.05(c)
|
|
Company RSU
|
| |
2.05(a)
|
|
Company RSU Merger Consideration
|
| |
2.05(a)
|
|
Company SEC Documents
|
| |
4.07(a)
|
|
Company Securities
|
| |
4.05(b)
|
|
Company Stockholder Approval
|
| |
4.02(a)
|
|
Company Stockholder Meeting
|
| |
6.02
|
|
Company Subsidiary Securities
|
| |
4.06(c)
|
|
Cut-Off Time
|
| |
6.03(b)
|
|
Data Security Obligations
|
| |
4.15(i)
|
|
Dissenting Shares
|
| |
2.04
|
|
Effective Time
|
| |
2.01(b)
|
|
Employee Plan
|
| |
4.17(a)
|
|
End Date
|
| |
10.01(b)(i)
|
|
Firearms, Ammunition and Explosives Laws
|
| |
4.12(b)
|
|
Foreign Antitrust Laws
|
| |
4.03
|
|
FCPA
|
| |
4.23(a)
|
|
Indemnified Person
|
| |
7.03(a)
|
|
Internal Controls
|
| |
4.07(f)
|
|
IRS
|
| |
4.17(a)
|
|
Leased Real Property
|
| |
4.14(a)
|
|
Major Supplier
|
| |
4.22
|
|
Material Contract
|
| |
4.21(a)
|
|
Maximum Tail Premium
|
| |
7.03(c)
|
|
Merger
|
| |
2.01
|
|
Merger Consideration
|
| |
2.02(a)
|
|
Merger Subsidiary
|
| |
Preamble
|
|
Multiemployer Plan
|
| |
4.17(c)
|
|
No-Shop Period Start Date
|
| |
6.03(a)
|
|
Parent
|
| |
Preamble
|
|
Parent Termination Fee
|
| |
11.04(b)(iii)
|
|
Paying Agent
|
| |
2.03(a)
|
|
Payment Fund
|
| |
2.03(b)
|
|
Preferred Stock
|
| |
4.05(a)
|
|
Proxy Statement
|
| |
4.09
|
|
Term
|
| |
Section
|
|
Real Property Lease
|
| |
4.14(a)
|
|
Reference Time
|
| |
4.05(a)
|
|
Regulated Data
|
| |
4.15(i)
|
|
Restraints
|
| |
9.01(b)
|
|
Surviving Corporation
|
| |
2.01
|
|
Uncertificated Shares
|
| |
2.03(a)
|
|
|
Board of Directors of Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc.
December 21, 2020 page 2 |
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Board of Directors of Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc.
December 21, 2020 page 3 |
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Board of Directors of Sportsman’s Warehouse Holdings, Inc.
December 21, 2020 page 4 |
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